Monday, February 01, 2016

Weekend

A few random observations.

  • I really, really, really, really, truly, completely, really, absolutely hate the FAFSA. Filling it out is a great way to destroy an afternoon.
  • I'm apparently supposed to have an opinion on Cam Newton, who will be much in the news this week as he prepares for the Super Bowl. I don't like him, but I will say he's an amazing guy to watch. For me, the problem isn't about his showboating or his braggadocio; for the most part, he backs it up, so it's on his opposition to stop him. He's always had the lingering stench of scandal following him since his remarkable year at Auburn, though, and that's difficult to forget, or forgive.
  • We had a shooting and a police standoff in our neighborhood on Friday night, apparently related to a drug deal gone bad, which took place about two blocks away from our house. We've lived in this neighborhood for nearly 20 years and nothing like that has ever happened before. We also were in the middle of having Fearless Maria's Sweet 16 birthday extravaganza while things were going down. As it happened, we were having dinner at a local Chinese restaurant when the incident started and as we returned home with Maria and 11 of her friends, we had to get past a police roadblock to reach our home. There was never any danger, although the unfailingly polite New Brighton police officer who was manning the roadblock on our street told us to stay put in our house until things were resolved. Not exactly how you draw things up, but the kids all had a good time.
  • Apparently the huge, massive, deadly snowstorm that we've been hearing about for the past week is going to mostly miss us and hit Iowa instead. Personally, I think they've suffered enough.

11 comments:

Brian said...

Personally, I think they've suffered enough.

Well said!

I am (perhaps morbidly) fascinated to see what happens tonight. Over the weekend I thought about my time caucusing in Washington in '12 (which I did primarily because I'd never lived in a caucus state and wanted to know what it is was like, because I'm a nerd like that.) And the one thing that occurred to me was: caucusing is really a pain in the ass.

The Trump and Sanders (and possibly Cruz) insurgencies will live or die by their ability to mobilize people who don't typically participate in these processes. It's what Barack Obama did. It's what Howard Dean failed to do. I could go on with examples, but I think you get the point.

I am well past calling either candidacy securing the nomination impossible, or even highly unlikely. But I nonetheless remain skeptical about how much buzz translates into actual votes. As David Brooks (not someone I typically reference, but on this point I think his repackaging of the obvious as profundity is correct) is fond of pointing out: people who tend not to vote, tend not to vote. Even more so when casting that vote involves going out on a school night and sitting through a really long a boring meeting.

All of which is to say: I think Iowa may be more consequential than usual this year. Not because they are first, and certainly not because of their decisive number of delegates...but because it is where we find out how much people who don't normally care about this stuff, actually do this time.

W.B. Picklesworth said...

Building on what Brian said, will people who don't normally vote go out on a school night in a significant snowstorm? Actually, the snow will be mainly on Tuesday, but a little bit of snow with the expected winds will make lots of roads pretty dicey.

Mr. D said...

And the one thing that occurred to me was: caucusing is really a pain in the ass.

Yep. And that's potentially a factor in what happens tonight.

Gino said...

the Iowa caucus generally doesnt produce the over all winner. but like brian says, its a good indicator of who is motivated. it'll be interesting.

Bike Bubba said...

Gaaa...Thanks for reminding me I've got to do that FAFSA with my oldest. I remember doing it in high school and the response was more or less "remortgage the house". Thankfully I didn't need student loans.

A friend of mine related to me how he got about the same response, but a cousin of his got a lot of aid because his parents were, despite being in law, smart enough not to save any money. The incentives are so screwed up with the system that it isn't even funny.

Mr. D said...

A friend of mine related to me how he got about the same response, but a cousin of his got a lot of aid because his parents were, despite being in law, smart enough not to save any money. The incentives are so screwed up with the system that it isn't even funny.

They sure are. The more you save, the faster they take it away from you.

Bike Bubba said...

And you can't fix it, really, except by saying "if you don't have at least a 70% chance of graduating, you don't get student loans." And if you did that--or if you had someone analyze spending for the previous ten years to see if the money went for medical bills or fancy vacations and the like--watch the world howl.

If it wasn't affecting my children and yours, I'd be popping the popcorn for how this collapses in the end.

Gino said...

Your kids could always do something that pays well and doesn't require college... Like fix cars.

Chuckwagon Boy said...

I first did FAFSA online for my eldest son, then for me & my eldest son, then for me, my eldest son and my middle son, then for my eldest son and for my middle son for 2 years and now this last year adding my youngest son as well. And I get to do it all again this year for all 3 of them!

Mr. D said...

CB, yow! Man, I hate that thing.

Bike Bubba said...

Gino; next best thing. They're considering nursing. Since they're not quite as big as their dad, fixing cars will involve, shall we say, a degree of difficulty for my girls. Needed help when they had to change a tire for drivers' ed--OK, doesn't help that I'm driving a half ton pickup and an Acadia. Those things are heavy.

Oldest wants to do nursing + Spanish, local school, already has a little scholarship, might get more with piano.