So we're going to have a new Pope. To understand the state of play, it's worth considering a few things about Cardinal Bergoglio, the man who became Pope Francis:
He was a product of his upbringing in Argentina - he came of age under Juan Peron, the longtime dictator of Argentina, who was socialist in many ways but also a traditional caudillo in others. That experience framed Francis's world view - as I've said repeatedly in the past, you can take a Pope out of Argentina, but it's difficult to get the Argentina out of the Pope.
Francis was a Jesuit - if you compare the church to a deck of cards, the Jesuits are the Jokers. They wield a lot of power, but typically they have been independent operators. Where they are welcome, they can do marvelous things. Our country has a number of outstanding Catholic universities that are at least nominally under the control of the order. One place where the Jesuits were not welcome was in the Archdiocese of Minneapolis and St. Paul, which his why we have a diocesan university (St. Thomas), instead of a Marquette, or Creighton, or Loyola.
Francis was a reaction against currents within the Church. His two immediate predecessors, St. John Paul II and Benedict, were conservative in matters of doctrine and were somewhat ambivalent of modernism, especially as manifested in Vatican II. Francis was the opposite and he was able to slow the conservative tide, but he didn't necessarily stop it.
Francis changed the composition of the College of Cardinals in two ways that don't necessarily travel together. He made it younger, and he made it far less European. What is interesting about that? Areas outside of Europe and North America are where the energy in the Church resides. But the energy of the youthful sectors of the Church tend to skew more conservative, especially on matters of doctrine. The future of the Church resides with the younger prelates, who mostly came up under JPII and Benedict, but most of those individuals are not yet considered papabile.
I believe the chances of another non-European pope are strong, for a number of reasons:
The primary energy in the Church is now elsewhere, especially in places that were once missionary territory. You could argue that Europe is missionary territory now, given the decline in Catholicism there. This decline is found within the Church but also within the mainline Protestant congregations, where in some ways the issue is even more dire. Our protestant brethren, especially of the more evangelical stripe, totally understand this - if you leave the parking lot of a Protestant church, you are likely see a sign when you leave the parking lot that says "You are now entering the mission field." The evangelicals believe this and are taking action. Catholics face the same issues and the younger prelates are the ones taking action.
I think Energy is important right now - the last two Popes have been elderly and JPII, while young when first elected, was quite elderly when he passed away. Many of the individuals considered papabile are in their 70s, so a younger Pope would very much be a sign that the Church leaders have made a decision about the future and want a leader who will have a papacy similar to JPII.
As for the specific candidates, I'd say the following:
There has not been an African pope since Pope Gelasius, who served from 492-496. Could we have an African pope this time? I think it's a strong possibility. There are fairly strong candidates
Peter Turkson -- currently at the Vatican, he is originally from Ghana. He is fairly liberal but not obviously so. He is also 76 - he was mentioned as a candidate in 2013 and might have been a stronger candidate then.
Fridolin Ambongo -- he is the Archbishop of Kinhasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He is considered a powerful leader and thinker, but it is unclear where he stands on a number of issues. He is also among the younger candidates at age 65. Certainly a possibility
Robert Sarah -- emeritus Vatican official. He's from Guinea and is probably the most conservative possibility. He is dynamic, but he's also likely too old. He will turn 80 this year.
Other non-European candidates include:
Luis Antonio Tagle -- currently in the Curia. Started out as a Jesuit but became a diocesan priest. He is a Filipino and clearly both a liberal and an acolyte of Francis, but he does stray a bit from the leftist orthodoxy and as a result fell out of favor a bit. He is younger at age 67. He has to be considered a strong possibility.
Charles Maung Bo -- currently the Archbishop of Yangon in Myanmar (Burma). He has a tough assignment and has managed it well. In terms of doctrine, he's significantly more conservative than Tagle, but he's also significantly older at age 76. He shares much in common with JPII, including being a playwright. He'd be excellent, I think.
Malcolm Ranjith -- currently the Archbishop of Colombo (Sri Lanka). He is a conservative but pro Vatican II. He's a skilled communicator and speaks 10 languages, which shows both his intelligence and his engagement with the world. I see him as a potential compromise candidate; he is age 77, but if the Conclave is not prepared to chose a direction and is looking for a transition figure, Ranjith would be a good choice.
There are two possible US candidates
Raymond Burke -- in Rome, but not part of the current hierarchy following a split with Francis. He's originally from Richland Center, WI. Was Bishop of Lacrosse, WI, then St. Louis. He built a big shrine in LaCrosse for Our Lady of Guadalupe. He's conservative, brilliant, and humble. I think at age 76 he's unlikely to get the nod, but his career is fascinating.
Timothy Dolan -- Archbishop of New York. Dolan is an old school Irish priest and he's genuinely popular among the flock and doctrinally conservative, but there are questions about his "gravitas." At age 75, I would consider him a longshot.
European candidates
Matteo Zuppi -- currently the Archbishop of Bologna. He's pretty far left, and if he were selected would essentially a continuation of Francis. He's actually tied closely to leftist political parties in Italy. Age 69; if he is chosen it signals that the liberal wing has won the argument.
Jean-Marc Aveline -- currently the Archbishop of Marseille. He is a friend of Francis; he was born in Algeria, which would technically make him an African pope, but he's spent most of his life in Europe. He is also pretty far left. Age 66.
Pietro Parolin -- currently the Vatican Secretary of State. His background is quite similar to Pope Paul, serving much of his life as a diplomat. He is also controversial because of his role in brokering a deal with the Chinese communist party, which ceded important control to the government in order for the Church to continue to operate there. He was doing Francis's bidding, but now that Francis is gone he may have trouble with those who disagreed with the initiative. Age 70.
Willem Eijk -- currently the Archbishop of Utretcht (Netherlands). Eijk is very well regarded generally and is a fairly consistent conservative. I like him a lot, but he also presides over a very secular archdiocese and he's spent much of his time fighting secularism to limited effect. He's 71.
Peter Erdo -- currently the Archbishop of Budapest. He is generally considered a conservative to moderate; he's been successful. Having come of age in communist Hungary, he has some similarities to JPII. I could see him becoming a compromise choice. Age 72.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa -- currently the Archbishop of Jerusalem. While his amusing surname has brought him attention, he's actually an intriguing candidate. He has served with great distinction in a tough neighborhood and has done well to protect the Church and his flock in the Holy Land. He's considered a moderate but has some conservative leanings. He's also one of the youngest papabile at age 60. Do not be surprised if he emerges.
My guess: who knows? I expect a reaction against some of Francis's excesses, but the question is whether or not a conservative will have the votes in the Conclave. Ranking the possibilities:
If a liberal wins: Zuppi, Tagle, Aveline, Parolin. I think the number of liberals could split vote, perhaps lessening the chance that any one of them actually wins.
If a conservative wins: Sarah, Eijk, Bo
If a compromise candidate: Turkson, Ranjith, Erdo
If a wild card is selected: Ambongo, Pizzaballa
I fully expect to be wrong. If you want more information on the cardinals, The College of Cardinals Report is about as comprehensive as you'd want.